Epidemic Shocks and Civil Violence: Evidence from Malaria Outbreaks in Africa
研究了疟疾爆发这类流行病冲击如何影响非洲地区的国内暴力事件，发现适宜疟疾传播的条件会加剧暴力，尤其在易感人群和收获季节，而遗传免疫和抗疟政策能缓解这一效应。
Abstract This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell × year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1∘×1∘ latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and antimalaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change.