Closing Time: The Local Equilibrium Effects of Prohibition
利用20世纪初美国禁酒令这一历史政策变化，研究地方政策对土地价值、人口和农业生产的影响，发现早期禁酒令提高了人口和农场地产价值，并吸引了移民和非裔美国人。
How do different local policies in a federal system affect local land values, production, and sorting? We study the question exploiting a large historical policy change: U.S. Alcohol Prohibition in the early twentieth century. Comparing same- state early and late adopters of county dry laws in a difference-in-differences design, we find that early Prohibition adoption increased population and farm real estate values. Moreover, we find strong effects on farm productivity consistent with increased investment due to a land price channel. In equilibrium, the policy change disproportionately attracted immigrants and African-Americans.