Brexit Uncertainty and Its (Dis)Service Effects
利用2016-2018年英国与欧盟的服务贸易数据，结合预测市场中的脱欧概率和行业贸易政策风险，发现脱欧威胁显著降低了英国服务出口，降幅至少20%。
We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016:I to 2018:IV. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries, we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points.