Survival Pessimism and the Demand for Annuities
研究发现人们低估自身生存概率（悲观主义）是年金购买率低的重要原因，为“年金之谜”提供了基于主观预期的量化解释。
Abstract The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of nonannuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.