Confidence and career choices: an experiment*
通过实验室实验，研究信心提升如何影响人们承担能力相关收入风险以及后续努力程度，发现信心增加会让人冒更多风险，但不影响努力，且对低能力者不利。
Abstract Confidence is often seen as an important determinant of success. However, empirical evidence regarding the causal effect of confidence on choices is sparse. Using a stylized laboratory experiment, we examine the effect of an increase in confidence on two important labor market choices: (i) the amount of ability‐contingent earnings risk to take on, and (ii) the subsequent effort choice. We find that increased confidence leads subjects to take on more ability‐contingent earnings risk. However, effort levels are unaffected. Overall, the upward shift in confidence is detrimental for low‐ability workers as a result of high baseline levels of confidence.