The determinants of output losses during the Covid-19 pandemic
利用丰富数据集和贝叶斯模型平均技术，识别了各国经济收缩程度差异的关键因素，发现初始条件（大型接触密集型服务业）和行为变化（自愿空间距离增加）比公共防控措施更重要。
The global recession in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic was accompanied by a significant degree of heterogeneity in the economic contraction across countries. We use a rich data set and Bayesian model averaging techniques to identify the factors shaping the extent of heterogeneity. The results highlight the importance of adverse initial conditions (large contact-intensive service sector) and behavioural changes (increased voluntary spatial distancing) relative to the extent of public containment measures.