Fiscal Cyclicality and Currency Risk Premia
构建了一个实际汇率决定模型，强调政府跨期预算约束的核心作用，发现财政冲击能解释实际汇率变动，且财政冲击的因子结构与货币收益的因子结构一致，对发达国家的数据验证了这些预测。
Abstract I develop a model of real exchange rate determination that attributes a central role to the intertemporal government budget condition, which equates the market value of government debt to the present value of government surpluses. To enforce this equilibrium condition in the presence of nominal rigidities, the real exchange rate has to adjust in response to shocks to government surpluses. The model predicts that fiscal shocks account for real exchange rate movements, and the factor structure in fiscal shocks aligns with the factor structure in currency returns. Both predictions are confirmed in the sample of developed countries.