The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy
利用路易斯安那州九年级升学考试的分数线，发现八年级留级使暴力犯罪定罪概率增加1.05个百分点（58.44%），且首次定罪次数增多，原因可能是同伴质量下降和教育投入减少导致非认知技能降低。
We present the first analysis of the effect of grade retention on adult criminal convictions, exploiting test cutoffs for ninth-grade promotion in Louisiana. Eighth-grade retention increases the likelihood of violent crime conviction by 1.05 percentage points (58.44%) and increases the number of violent crime convictions at first conviction. The effects are likely driven by declines in high school peer quality and reduced educational investments that result in lower noncognitive skill acquisition. Extrapolating effects away from the cutoff shows that our results are generalizable to a larger group of low-performing students and are evident for both property and drug crimes.