Oil Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria
利用国际油价冲击和尼日利亚产油区的地方政府数据，研究发现油价上涨导致政府对反叛组织的攻击不成比例地增加，支持了政府通过加强镇压、夺回领土和扩大暴力来垄断暴力的理论。
Abstract When and for what reason do governments choose to monopolize violence and consolidate power? Theory suggests three channels: when the government has coercive power against the opposition, if it shifts the distribution of power in its favor, and when contingent spoils are large. Using international oil price shocks and a novel dataset on oil-producing local government areas, this article examines how commodity prices affect civil conflict in Nigeria. Results show that a rise in oil price leads to a more than proportionate increase in government attacks on rebel groups in the oil region. The findings are consistent with the theoretical predictions: positive oil price shocks increase the monopoly of violence by the government through an increase in coercion, a rise in regaining territories from rebel groups, and an increase of violence in areas with large oil fields.