Artificial intelligence as a general-purpose technology: an historical perspective
考察蒸汽、电力和ICT等通用技术对生产力的影响，发现它们有显著效果但存在滞后，并探讨第一次工业革命的经验，认为人工智能可能成为第四次工业革命的基础。
Abstract This paper looks at the impact on productivity of general-purpose technologies such as steam, electricity, and ICT. It finds they had big effects but only with a lag which was substantial in the first two cases. The experience of the First Industrial Revolution is explored and it is found that this is not a template for a general-purpose technology having a major adverse effect on workers’ living standards. The essence of that industrial revolution was not rapid productivity growth in the short run, but the ‘invention of a new method of invention’ which increased technological progress in the long run. Since artificial intelligence is potentially a general-purpose technology that raises the productivity of research and development, it may be the basis for a Fourth Industrial Revolution.