The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility
利用一战前后农产品价格波动，研究发现农业收入增加降低了生育率，解释了1910-1930年间约9%的生育率下降，且影响集中在农村女性，符合机会成本上升的解释。
Abstract Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand surrounding World War I, we examine the fertility response to crop revenue increases from 1910 to 1930. Our estimates indicate that agricultural price increases reduced fertility, explaining about 9% of the overall decline in fertility over the period. The effect persists years after the collapse of the war boom. Importantly, we show that fertility declines were concentrated in farm women and fertility declined along intensive and extensive margins. Combined, the pattern of estimates is consistent with agricultural women experiencing an increase in the opportunity cost of their time.