作为不完美问题解决者的经济主体

Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2022
被引 64
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

构建了一个有限理性模型,将自动思维与分析思维结合,解释经济主体在不同状态下推理程度的差异,并应用于标准的不完全市场模型,内生产生行为偏差,如高边际消费倾向和财富不平等。

Abstract

Abstract We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. A key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent behavior. Our application is an otherwise standard incomplete-markets model with no a priori behavioral biases. The ergodic distribution of actions and beliefs is characterized by endogenous learning traps, where locally stable state dynamics generate familiar regions of the state space within which behavior appears to follow memory-based heuristics. This results in endogenous behavioral biases that have many empirically desirable properties: the marginal propensity to consume is high even for unconstrained agents, hand-to-mouth status is more frequent and persistent, and there is more wealth inequality than in the standard model.

双系统思维有限理性内生行为偏差学习陷阱