Universal Basic Income Programs: How Much Would Taxes Need to Rise? Evidence for Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa
通过微观模拟分析巴西等五国用全民基本收入替代现有转移支付对贫困和税收的影响，发现维持贫困水平不上升需大幅增税，平均税率增幅普遍超30%，可行性受限。
Using microsimulations this paper analyzes the poverty and tax implications of replacing current transfers and subsidies by a budget-neutral (no change in the fiscal deficit) universal basic income program (UBI) in Brazil, Chile, India, Russia, and South Africa. We consider three UBI transfers with increasing levels of generosity and identify scenarios in which the poor are no worse off than in the baseline scenario of existing social transfers. We find that for poverty levels not to increase under a UBI reform, the level of spending must increase substantially with respect to the baseline. Accordingly, the required increase in tax burdens is high throughout. We find that the increase in the average tax rate that would be consistent with not hurting the poor is almost universally above 30%, limiting the feasibility of a UBI reform due to political resistance and efficiency costs.