Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines
利用133个国家1950-2014年的数据，发现财政空间不足会导致财政政策更顺周期，且这种关系是非线性的；财政空间小的国家需大幅改善才能实施逆周期政策。
Abstract Utilizing data from 133 countries over the period 1950–2014, we identify fiscal space as a key factor underlying the cyclicality of fiscal policies. We find that less fiscal space induces greater fiscal procyclicality and show that this relationship is nonlinear; countries in the bottom tail of the fiscal space distribution need to make significant improvements before they can perform countercyclical policy. Given the increasingly dominant role of fiscal action in downturns, as is highlighted during the Covid‐19 crisis, these findings clearly indicate the importance of building fiscal space in good times to provide capacity for countercyclical policy in bad times.