人口结构与自动化

Demographics and Automation

Review of Economic Studies · 2021
被引 473 · 同刊同年前 1%
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究从理论和实证上证明人口老龄化导致劳动力短缺,进而推动工业自动化,并验证了老龄化对机器人采用、自动化创新及行业生产率的影响。

Abstract

Abstract We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, because it creates a shortage of middle-aged workers specializing in manual production tasks. We show that demographic change is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across U.S. commuting zones. We also document more automation innovation in countries undergoing faster aging. Our directed technological change model predicts that the response of automation technologies to aging should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation and that productivity should improve and the labor share should decline relatively in industries that are more amenable to automation. The evidence supports all four of these predictions.

人口老龄化自动化机器人技术技术变革