What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data
利用欧洲央行工作人员独特的实时季度宏观经济预测，估计了欧洲央行货币政策反应函数的多种设定，发现其实际通胀目标在1.6%至1.8%之间，且对短期预测和过去通胀偏离均有反应。
Using unique real-time quarterly macroeconomic projections of the Eurosystem/ECB staff, we estimate competing specifications of the ECB's monetary policy reaction function. We consider specifications which include inflation and output growth projections, a past inflation gap, a time-varying natural real interest rate, and different inflation targets. Our first key finding is that the de facto inflation target of the ECB lies between 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent. Our second key finding is that the ECB reacts both to short-term macroeconomic projections and to past deviations of inflation from its de facto target.