Infection vulnerability stratification risk modelling of COVID-19 data: a deterministic SEIR epidemic model analysis
针对标准SEIR模型高估感染人数的问题，提出扩展模型，利用美国和欧洲七国数据，发现温和持久的预防措施比严格措施更有效，并预测第二波疫情可能首先出现在德国、西班牙、法国和意大利。
Basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models of COVID-19 dynamics tend to be excessively pessimistic due to high basic reproduction values, which result in overestimations of cases of infection and death. We propose an extended SEIR model and daily data of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and the seven largest European countries to forecast possible pandemic dynamics by investigating the effects of infection vulnerability stratification and measures on preventing the spread of infection. We assume that (i) the number of cases would be underestimated at the beginning of a new virus pandemic due to the lack of effective diagnostic methods and (ii) people more susceptible to infection are more likely to become infected; whereas during the later stages, the chances of infection among others will be reduced, thereby potentially leading to pandemic cessation. Based on infection vulnerability stratification, we demonstrate effects brought by the fraction of infected persons in the population at the start of pandemic deceleration on the cumulative fraction of the infected population. We interestingly show that moderate and long-lasting preventive measures are more effective than more rigid measures, which tend to be eventually loosened or abandoned due to economic losses, delay the peak of infection and fail to reduce the total number of cases. Our calculations relate the pandemic's second wave to high seasonal fluctuations and a low vulnerability stratification coefficient. Our characterisation of basic reproduction dynamics indicates that second wave of the pandemic is likely to first occur in Germany, Spain, France, and Italy, and a second wave is also possible in the U.K. and the U.S. Our findings show that even if the total elimination of the virus is impossible, the total number of infected people can be reduced during the deceleration stage.