The susceptibility of farmland loans to default under falling farmland and commodity prices
通过模拟异质性农户在商品和农田价格波动期间的行为，研究发现违约率对农田价格比对商品价格更敏感，且两者同时下跌时违约率上升超过各自冲击之和。
Abstract Periods of high commodity prices and rising farmland debt loads are typically accompanied with speculation that there will eventually be declines in commodity and farmland prices that may lead to a farm credit crisis. We evaluate the likelihood of such a crisis using a simulation model of heterogeneous farmers during periods of volatile commodity and farmland prices. This model simulates a period of increasing commodity and farmland prices with a subsequent drop in prices of farmland and commodities. We find default rates are less sensitive to commodity prices than farmland prices, that the length of time prices remain low matters significantly, and that when both farmland and commodity prices fall together defaults rise more than the sum of the responses to separate price shocks.