Prior Forecasting Accuracy and Investor Reaction to Management Earnings Forecasts
研究了公司先前预测准确性如何影响投资者对后续管理层盈利预测的反应，发现预测记录越长、越准确，股价反应越强，尤其对极端消息更敏感。
ABSTRACT We examine the properties of firms' forecasting records and whether the accuracy of their prior earnings forecasts affects investor response to their subsequent forecasts.Within the context of a Bayesian model of investor learning, we find that the stock price response to management forecast news is increasing in prior forecast accuracy and also in the length of a firm's forecasting record. Further, we document that investors are more responsive to extreme good and bad news forecasts when a firm has an established forecasting record. Overall, these results suggest that a firm's prior forecasting behavior allows it to establish a forecasting reputation, and that market forces encourage accurate forecasting as firms benefit from having a reputation for forecasting accurately. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G19; G39; D89; M40.