No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations
基于法国制造业企业调查，研究行业特定冲击如何影响企业对宏观经济的预期，发现企业会利用观察到的本地价格推断整体经济状况，且这种影响与企业及行业特征相关。
Using a survey of French manufacturing firms, we study how firms' expectations and actions are affected by both aggregate and industry-specific conditions. In response to industry-level shocks that have no aggregate effects, firms' aggregate expectations respond persistently. This is consistent with "island" models in which firms use the local prices they observe to make inferences about broader aggregate conditions. These patterns are related to observable characteristics of firms and the industries in which they reside. Finally, we extend the analysis to firms' expectations over their own future price changes and document how these respond to both industry and aggregate variation.