Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis
研究发现约半数专业预测者使用自然失业率进行预测，不使用者的通胀预期更高且更不稳定，并认为美联储的前瞻指引可信度较低；同时分析了FOMC参与者之间及与私营部门的分歧及其对可信度的影响。
About half of professional forecasters report that they use the natural rate of unemployment (u∗) to forecast. I show that forecasters' reported use of and estimates of u∗ are informative about their expectations-formation process, including their use of a Phillips curve. Those who report not using u∗ have higher and less anchored inflation expectations, and seem to have found the Federal Reserve's state-based forward guidance less credible. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publishes participants' projections of longer-run unemployment in the Summary of Economic Projections. I document how and when the FOMC participants have disagreed with each other and with the private sector, discussing possible sources of disagreement and implications for credibility.