Cyclical Government Spending: Theory and Empirics
研究发现，通常被视为相机抉择的政府支出中有一部分会随经济周期系统性地变化。利用美国州级数据估计结构模型，发现就业下降1%时政府支出的系统性部分下降0.23%，并评估了Nakamura和Steinsson（2014）的实证方法。
Abstract This paper shows that part of what is usually labelled discretionary government spending actually varies systematically over the cycle. I exploit the pervasive gap between ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares local government spending multipliers to estimate how cyclical the systematic part of government spending is. Estimating a structural open-economy New Keynesian model on United States state-level data, I find that when employment decreases by $1\%$, the systematic component of government spending decreases by $0.23\%$. I also find that the empirical specification in Nakamura and Steinsson, ‘Fiscal Stimulus in a monetary union’ (American Economic Review, 2014) does a good job in recovering the true impact multiplier effect, but that it overestimates the long-run cumulative effect.