针对难处理后验的高效伯努利工厂马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法

Efficient Bernoulli factory Markov chain Monte Carlo for intractable posteriors

Biometrika · 2021
被引 6
ABS 4

中文导读

提出一类新的MCMC接受概率,不依赖目标密度比值,通过两个稳定的伯努利工厂生成事件,适用于扩散模型贝叶斯推断和约束空间MCMC,计算效率优于现有方法。

Abstract

Summary Accept-reject-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have traditionally utilized acceptance probabilities that can be explicitly written as a function of the ratio of the target density at the two contested points. This feature is rendered almost useless in Bayesian posteriors with unknown functional forms. We introduce a new family of Markov chain Monte Carlo acceptance probabilities that has the distinguishing feature of not being a function of the ratio of the target density at the two points. We present two stable Bernoulli factories that generate events within this class of acceptance probabilities. The efficiency of our methods relies on obtaining reasonable local upper or lower bounds on the target density, and we present two classes of problems where such bounds are viable: Bayesian inference for diffusions, and Markov chain Monte Carlo on constrained spaces. The resulting portkey Barker’s algorithms are exact and computationally more efficient that the current state of the art.

贝叶斯推断马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛计算统计扩散过程