A Systems Framework for International Development: The Data‐Layered Causal Loop Diagram
扩展了因果循环图，加入数据层以描述变量状态和变化，用于分析系统动态和行为驱动因素，无需模拟。通过乌干达农业融资案例，发现贷款需求不足是主要障碍，而非信贷获取。
Meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require adapting or redirecting a variety of very complex global and local human systems. It is essential that development scholars and practitioners have tools to understand the dynamics of these systems and the key drivers of their behavior, such as barriers to progress and leverage points for driving sustainable change. System dynamics tools are well suited to address this challenge, but they must first be adapted for the data‐poor and fragmented environment of development work. Our key contribution is to extend the causal loop diagram (CLD) with a data layer that describes the status of and change in each variable based on available data. By testing dynamic hypotheses against the system's actual behavior, it enables analysis of a system's dynamics and behavioral drivers without simulation. The data‐layered CLD was developed through a 4‐year engagement with USAID/Uganda. Its contributions are illustrated through an application to agricultural financing in Uganda. Our analysis identified a lack of demand for agricultural loans as a major barrier to broadening agricultural financing, partially refuting an existing hypothesis that access to credit was the main constraint. Our work extends system dynamics theory to meet the challenges of this practice environment, enabling analysis of the complex dynamics that are crucial to achieving the SDGs.