Cyclical labour income risk in Great Britain
研究了英国家庭劳动收入风险在经济衰退期的变化，发现风险增加源于收入冲击的偏度和峰度变化，而非方差，并指出福利政策比税收政策更有效地降低了风险暴露。
Summary This paper provides new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household labour income risk in Great Britain and the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this source of income risk. To achieve this, we decompose stochastic idiosyncratic household income into its transitory and persistent components. We focus our analysis of income risk captured by the second to fourth moments of the probability distribution of shocks to the persistent component of income. We find that household labour income risk increases during contractions via changes in third and fourth central moments of persistent shocks to labour income, whereas the variance remains acyclical. We also find that economic policy has reduced the level of risk exposure and its increase during contractions via benefits rather than tax policies.