Optimal Inflation Target in an Economy with Menu Costs and a Zero Lower Bound
在包含菜单成本和零利率下限的量化模型中,研究发现最优通胀目标为3.5%,高于传统货币政策分析模型的结果,因为通胀对资源错配影响小,且高通胀目标能降低零下限时的价格灵活性,减轻衰退严重程度。
I study the optimal inflation target in a quantitative menu cost model with a zero lower bound on interest rates. I find that the optimal inflation target is 3.5 percent, which is higher than in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. Key to this result is that inflation has a small effect on resource misallocation when the model features firm-level shocks, which are necessary to match the empirical distribution of price changes. A higher inflation target decreases price flexibility at the zero lower bound, and through this mechanism, it reduces the severity of recessions when the monetary authority is constrained.