Seeing beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes
用机器学习预测受最低工资政策影响的工人，并基于1979至2019年间172次最低工资上调进行事件研究，发现工资上升但就业、失业率等无显著变化。
We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes. First, we apply modern machine learning tools to predict who is affected by the policy. Second, we implement an event study using 172 prominent minimum wage increases between 1979 and 2019. We find a clear increase in wages of affected workers and no change in employment. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have no effect on the unemployment rate, labor force participation, or labor market transitions. Overall, these findings provide little evidence of changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase.