Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector
研究发现2018-2019年美国加征关税并未提振制造业，反而因进口保护的正效应被投入成本上升和报复性关税的负效应抵消，导致就业减少、生产者价格上涨及失业率上升。
Abstract This paper estimates the relationship between the U.S. tariff increases of 2018-2019 and outcomes in domestic manufacturing. Despite being intended to boost manufacturing activity, we find U.S. industries more exposed to tariff increases experience relative reductions in employment, as a small positive effect from import protection is offset by larger negative effects from rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs. Higher tariffs are also associated with relative increases in producer prices due to rising input costs. Lastly, we document broader labor market impacts, as counties more exposed to rising tariffs exhibit relative increases in unemployment and declines in labor force participation.