Capital Markets in China and Britain, 1770–1860: Evidence from Grain Prices
利用粮食价格数据估算利率，比较1770-1860年中英资本市场发展，发现英国利率平均比中国低约3个百分点，且区域市场整合度更高，这可能解释了中西方的大分流。
Based on comprehensive grain price data, we employ a storage model to estimate consistent interest rates and compare capital market development between Britain and China. Interest rates for Britain were lower than China’s on average by about 3 percentage points from 1770 to 1860. For country pairs with bilateral distance less than 200 kilometers, the regional capital market integration in the Yangzi Delta in China comes close to the British average; but at larger distances, spatial interest rate correlations in Britain are twice those of the Delta and three or more times as high as elsewhere in China. Overall, our results suggest capital market development differences at an early date, so that capital market performance may be important for the Great Divergence that emerged between China and Western countries at this time.