Financial markets and Keynes’s long-term expectations
用直观方式表述凯恩斯的预期理论及其对金融市场的影响，基于埃尔斯伯格的建议推导出凯恩斯不确定性下的资产估值预期函数，并利用ε-污染概率先验建模。
Abstract This paper presents an intuitive way to represent Keynes’s theory of expectations and its implications for financial markets. Further to a suggestion by Ellsberg, a coherent expectational function for the valuation of assets under Keynesian uncertainty is derived. By following the thread that goes from the non-numerical probabilities of the Treatise on Probability to the expectations of the General Theory, this paper suggests that a function accounting for Keynesian expectations can be modelled by using a class of the so-called ε-contaminated probability priors, where the parameter ε is suggestive of the quality of information about the relevant odds.