Revisiting the effects of housing transfer taxes
研究发现住房转让税的福利成本比以往认为的更大，因为此前忽略了处理组与对照组之间的溢出效应；基于准实验和校准模型，忽略溢出效应会导致对流动性负面影响的低估达20%。
Housing transfer taxes are fiscally important in many countries despite evidence of substantial welfare costs. We argue that the welfare costs are larger than previously thought because previous studies ignore spillovers between treatment and control groups. We analyze the effect of transfer taxes on household mobility using a quasi-experiment arising from a tax reform. To account for spillovers between treatment and control groups, we use a housing market model calibrated to match the mobility rates in our micro data and our quasi-experimental mobility effect estimate. Ignoring the spillovers leads to a 20% underestimation of the negative mobility effect.