民粹主义的价格:民粹选举成功对金融市场的影响

The price of populism: Financial market outcomes of populist electoral success

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · 2021
被引 38
ABS 3

中文导读

研究了民粹政党在西方民主国家选举中获胜如何影响国内主要股指的波动性,发现左翼民粹引发政治不确定性但金融影响有限,右翼民粹反而降低风险评估。

Abstract

Following financial research on the importance of public policy for asset prices, we hypothesize that the success of populist movements impacts risk assessments in financial markets. Building a novel dataset, findings show for a sample of Western democracies that the success of populist parties has a direct impact on volatility in major domestic market indexes, measured from option prices spanning national elections. Despite its anti-capitalist rhetoric, the political insecurity generated by populist movements on the far left only partially translates into financial insecurity in the context of institutionalized democracies. In turn, we find the electoral success of right-wing populists to reduce risk assessments, which could be driven by its frequent association with rent-seeking and big business.

民粹主义金融市场选举政治风险资产定价