Trade specialization and performance in global value chains
研究贸易专业化（自然资源、高低技术制造、商业服务）如何影响各国在全球价值链中的贸易绩效，发现低技术制造和自然资源专业化会降低人均国内增加值出口增长，而高技术制造和知识密集型商业服务在危机期有正面作用。
Abstract This article investigates whether trade specialization explains economies’ trade performance within the context of global value chains (GVCs). We consider trade specialization in natural resources (NR), high- and low-tech manufacturing (LTM and HTM) and business services, before and after the financial crisis. The aimed contribution of this article is to shed light on the effects of trade specialization as measured in domestic value added embodied in exports rather than gross exports. We add to the literature on GVCs by (i) studying the role of the domestic productive structure in countries’ trade specialization and performance, (ii) accounting for the rate of changes in trade specialization as affecting GVC performance. We employ Balassa indexes based on value added flows in a GMM dynamic panel framework. Our results suggest that trade specialization in LTM and NR relate to a decline in the growth of domestic value-added per capita exports relative to other countries. HTM and knowledge-intensive business services exhibit a positive effect during the crisis period. We discuss these findings in relation to the recent debates on the role of manufacturing and premature de-industrialization in developing countries.