The pandemic economic crisis, precautionary behavior, and mobility constraints: an application of the dynamic disequilibrium model with randomness†
构建了一个包含部门冲击、资源流动约束和高度不确定性的动态非均衡模型，分析疫情的经济影响及不同政策的效果，发现预防性行为会加剧衰退，而工资灵活性可能反而提高失业。
Abstract This article analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative policies. Our framework focuses on three key features: (i) The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a sectoral shock of unknown depth and duration affecting some sectors and technologies more than others; (ii) there are constraints in shifting resources across sectors; and (iii) there is a high level of uncertainty about the disease and its economic aftermath, inducing a high level of precautionary behavior by some agents and leading to others facing more severe credit constraints. Because of macroeconomic externalities, precautionary behavior exacerbates the downturn, and even sectors where COVID-19 does not directly affect consumption or production may face unemployment. Multipliers associated with different government expenditure programs differ markedly. The article describes policies that can mitigate precautionary behavior, leading to reduced unemployment. Greater wage flexibility may lead to increased unemployment.