Quantifying multipliers in Italy: does fiscal policy composition matter?
利用1995-2019年意大利季度数据，通过结构向量自回归模型估算财政乘数，发现政府支出乘数大于1且投资乘数高于消费乘数，税收乘数小于1，支持凯恩斯主义观点。
Abstract This article aims to estimate fiscal multipliers in Italy by assessing the effect of an increase in government expenditure and taxes on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By applying structural vector autoregressive modelling to Italian quarterly data for the 1995–2019 period, I show that expansionary fiscal policies produce positive effects on the GDP level. Estimated spending multipliers are higher than 1, and when government investment and consumption are compared, findings show that government investment has a larger effect on GDP than government consumption. Estimated tax multipliers are lower than 1, and tax-based policies are less effective in stimulating GDP than expenditure-based fiscal plans. My findings strongly support the Keynesian perspective and indicate that Italy should increase public investments considerably in order to foster economic growth.