Consumer inflation expectations, income changes and economic downturns
基于30多万澳大利亚人的调查数据，发现约五分之一的人形成通胀预期的方式与主流理论不符，其预期随自身收入下降而上升，这在经济衰退时可能引发通胀意外，对货币政策制定者具有重要启示。
Summary Using a novel, nationally representative dataset containing the expectations of over 300,000 Australians, individuals are shown to form expectations in a manner inadequately explained by popular expectation mechanisms. Approximately one in five individuals form inflation expectations that are negatively related to their own‐income changes, even after accounting for their level of optimism regarding future economic conditions and their observation of economic news. These individuals are more likely to be engaged in manual labour and to be on lower income brackets. The inflation expectations of such individuals rise, even as Phillips curve predictions of inflation fall. The findings are particularly important for inflation dynamics during economic downturns when large numbers of consumers are likely to heavily increase their inflation expectations, potentially resulting in large inflation surprises.