Chinese vs. US Trade in an Emerging Country: The Impact of Trade Openness in Chile
研究了智利与中国和美国签订自由贸易协定后，进口竞争对制造业销售、就业和劳动生产率的影响，发现中国进口渗透有负面效应，但外资和出口强度可逆转此效应。
This paper explores the effects of import competition on the manufacturing sector in Chile following the implementation of the country’s two largest Free Trade Agreements (FTA) (with the USA and China). Exploiting cross-industry variation in import exposure, we analyse the effects on manufacturing sales, employment and labour productivity at the finest level of industrial classification (4 digit ISIC level). We detect an overall negative effect of increased Chinese import penetration, owing to substitution effects from low and medium tech imports and a less pronounced effect from USA imports. By introducing interaction effects, we find that the levels of foreign ownership and the export intensity of the domestic industries reverse the negative effect due to the opportunities offered via participation in global value chains. An IV strategy is applied to address standard endogeneity concerns and confirm the robustness of our estimates.