Democracy Doesn't Always Happen Over Night: Regime Change in Stages and Economic Growth
提出民主化常是两阶段过程，而非单一事件，并采用重复处理双重差分法估计，发现分阶段建模比单一事件更能揭示民主化对长期经济增长的正面效应。
Abstract How substantial are the economic benefits from democratic regime change? We argue that democratisation is often not a discrete event but a two-stage process: autocracies enter into ‘episodes’ of political liberalisation which eventually culminate in regime change or not. To account for this chronology and the implicit counterfactual groups, we introduce a repeated-treatment difference-in-difference implementation capturing non-parallel trends and selection into treatment. We find that modelling regime change in two stages rather than a single event yields stronger long-run growth effects. Among democratizers, experiencing repeated episodes without regime change reduces growth in democracy whereas length of episode does not.