How Does Incarceration Affect Reoffending? Estimating the Dose-Response Function
利用北卡罗来纳州量刑指南的断点，研究发现一年监禁使三年内再监禁概率降低44%，且监禁时长增加效果递减，为政策制定者优化刑罚资源提供参考。
We study the causal effect of incarceration on reoffending using discontinuities in North Carolina’s sentencing guidelines. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that 1 year of incarceration causes a reduction in the likelihood of being reincarcerated within 3, 5, and 8 years from sentencing by 44%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. To parse the potentially heterogeneous dose response relationship underlying these effects, we develop an econometric model of prison sentences and recidivism. We find that incarceration has meaningful reoffending-reducing average effects that diminish in incarceration length. As a result, budget-neutral reductions in sentence length combined with increases in incarceration rates can decrease recidivism.