Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China
利用2006-2017年中国30个省级政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据，通过空间杜宾模型等方法，发现经济增长目标约束与空气污染呈U型关系，且存在空间溢出和门槛效应，对地方政府目标管理和可持续发展有参考价值。
Abstract An economic growth target is a declaration by policy authorities of commitment to that target and the corresponding allocation of resources. The constraints created by economic growth target are an important economic management method in China, which has helped China's economy to achieve remarkable achievements. However, it has also brought about serious environmental problems, threatening China's sustainable development. Using the data about economic growth targets in the work reports of 30 Chinese provincial governments from 2006 to 2017, this paper constructs several spatial measurement methods, such as the spatial Durbin model, to examine the constraints created by economic growth target's impacts on air pollution. The main conclusions are as follows. First, a significant “U‐shaped” relationship exists between the constraints created by economic growth targets and air pollution. Second, the spatial Durbin model analysis revealed that PM 2.5 across China's provinces display significant positive spatial spillover effects and spatial agglomeration characteristics. Third, the direct, indirect, and total effects of constraints created by economic growth targets on air pollution are all statistically significant and depict a “U shape.” Finally, the constraints created by economic growth targets have an apparent threshold effect on air pollution, and the inhibiting effects increase with human capital and industrial restructuring. However, with the increase in foreign direct investments, constraints created by economic growth targets may increase air pollution. The conclusions of this paper are of great significance for improving the management of local government economic growth targets and sustainable development.