From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC’s New Employment Objective
研究了美联储将就业稳定目标从“偏离”改为“短缺”后的影响，发现该规则会推高通胀和名义利率，并改变菲利普斯曲线的形状，对宏观经济学家和政策制定者有参考价值。
We analyze the effects of a monetary policy that stabilizes “shortfalls” rather than “deviations” of employment from its maximum level. A shortfalls-stabilization rule leads to expectations of more accommodative policy in expansions, raising average inflation and nominal rates. These effects are significantly amplified by incorporating history dependence in labor markets, a feature in labor-search frameworks. In a calibrated model of labor-search frictions and nominal rigidities, the adoption of a shortfalls rule raises average inflation and nominal policy rates by 90 basis points, reduces the likelihood of a binding zero lower bound, and implies a steeper and nonlinear Phillips curve.