Lapse-Based Insurance
研究发现，大多数人寿保险单会失效，且失效者补贴未失效者；标准理性预期模型预测与实证相反，作者提出两种行为模型（忘记缴费和低估未来流动性需求），并通过调查验证了失效原因。
Most individual life insurance policies lapse, with lapsers cross-subsidizing non-lapsers. We show that policies and lapse patterns predicted by standard rational expectations models are the opposite of those observed empirically. We propose two behavioral models consistent with the evidence: (i) consumers forget to pay premiums and (ii) consumers understate future liquidity needs. We conduct two surveys with a large insurer. New buyers believe that their own lapse probabilities are small compared to the insurer’s actual experience. For recent lapsers, forgetfulness accounts for 37.8 percent of lapses while unexpected liquidity accounts for 15.4 percent.