Of Forking Paths and Tied Hands: Selective Publication of Findings, and What Economists Should Do about It
探讨了实证研究中结果选择性发表导致的偏差问题，综述了检测方法，并基于不同目标（推断有效性 vs. 决策相关性）讨论了改革建议，如弱化显著性、预分析计划、设立零结果期刊等。
A key challenge for interpreting published empirical research is the fact that published findings might be selected by researchers or by journals. Selection might be based on criteria such as significance, consistency with theory, or the surprisingness of findings or their plausibility. Selection leads to biased estimates, reduced coverage of confidence intervals, and distorted posterior beliefs. I review methods for detecting and quantifying selection based on the distribution of p-values, systematic replication studies, and meta-studies. I then discuss the conflicting recommendations regarding selection result ing from alternative objectives, in particular, the validity of inference versus the relevance of findings for decision-makers. Based on this discussion, I consider various reform proposals, such as deemphasizing significance, pre-analysis plans, journals for null results and replication studies, and a functionally differentiated publication system. In conclusion, I argue that we need alternative foundations of statistics that go beyond the single-agent model of decision theory.