Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil
基于嵌入暂时性和永久性冲击的实证模型，研究全球市场实际油价的决定因素，发现两类冲击的传导机制存在显著差异，且永久性供给冲击对油价波动影响很大。
Summary This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on an empirical model embedding transitory and permanent shocks. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent disturbances, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply shocks are found to be very influential in driving oil price fluctuations.