Capacity reservation and sourcing under exchange‐rate uncertainty
研究了企业在汇率和需求不确定下，如何从国内外供应商预留产能并决定采购量，发现最优策略包括国内单一采购、国外单一采购和两种双源采购策略，且风险规避会促进双源采购。
Abstract We study a firm's capacity reservation and sourcing decisions under exchange‐rate and demand uncertainty. The firm initially reserves capacity from one domestic and one international supplier in the presence of exchange‐rate and demand uncertainty. After observing exchange rates, the firm determines the amount of capacity to utilize for sourcing under demand uncertainty. The article makes four contributions. First, it identifies the set of optimal capacity reservation policies for sourcing activities: One onshore, two offshore, and two dual sourcing policies. The first dual sourcing policy is a defensive action where the firm rations limited capacity between the two sources. The second dual sourcing policy is an opportunistic approach as it features excess capacity investment in order to benefit from currency fluctuations. The analysis shows how the optimal sourcing policy changes with increasing degrees of exchange‐rate volatility. Second, while earlier publications classify cost as an order qualifier, we find that characterization of a dominant sourcing strategy is more nuanced under exchange rate uncertainty. In particular, a buyer might not reserve capacity at a supplier who has a lower (expected) cost and choose to work only with a supplier who has a higher unit expected cost. Third, the article shows that risk aversion reduces the likelihood of single sourcing, specifically offshore sourcing, and increases the likelihood of dual sourcing. Fourth, the study demonstrates that financial hedging can eliminate the negative consequences of risk aversion and make the policy findings more pronounced.