Welfare Cuts and Crime: Evidence from the New Poor Law
利用1834年新济贫法改革导致英格兰和威尔士各郡福利支出大幅且异质性削减，采用双重差分工具变量策略，发现福利慷慨程度与犯罪活动之间存在稳健的负相关关系，尤其在季节性农业失业月份更为显著。
Abstract The New Poor Law reform of 1834 induced dramatic and heterogeneous reductions in welfare spending across English and Welsh counties. Using the reform in a difference-in-differences instrumental variables strategy, we document a robust negative relationship between the generosity of welfare provision and criminal activity. Results are driven by non-violent property crimes and are stronger during months of seasonal agricultural unemployment, highlighting the particularly criminogenic combination of welfare cuts and precarious work opportunities for the economically vulnerable.