When Interest Rates Go Low, Should Public Debt Go High?
研究在利率低于增长率的条件下，政府能否通过持续向年轻人征税并转移给老年人来改善所有世代的福利。基于随机OLG模型，发现帕累托改进仅在不可信的参数校准下出现，且主要源于代际和国际风险分担，而非简单的代际再分配。
Is deficit finance free when real borrowing rates are routinely lower than growth rates? Specifically, can the government make all generations better off by perpetually taking from the young and giving to the old? We study this in stochastic closed- and open-economy OLG models. Unfortunately, Pareto gains are predicted only for implausible calibrations. Even then, the gains reflect improved inter-generational risk sharing, improved international risk sharing, and beggaring thy neighbor—not intergenerational redistribution, per se. As we show, theoretically and quantitatively, low government borrowing rates suggest state-contingent bilateral transfers between generations––not unconditional, unilateral redistribution from future to current generations.