Uncertainty, Wages and the Business Cycle
研究发现，经济衰退时工资调整受限会放大不确定性冲击的影响，并解释不确定性指标的周期性变化。对研究经济波动和劳动力市场的学者有参考价值。
Abstract We show that limited wage flexibility in economic downturns generates strong and state-dependent amplification of uncertainty shocks. It also explains the cyclical behaviour of empirical measures of uncertainty. In the presence of matching frictions, an occasionally binding constraint on downward wage adjustment enhances the concavity of firms’ hiring rule, resulting in an endogenous profit risk-premium. In turn, higher uncertainty increases the profit risk-premium when the economy operates close to the wage constraint, deepening a recession. Non-linear local projections and vector autoregression estimates support the model predictions. In addition, we show that measured uncertainty rises in a recession even without uncertainty shocks.