Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis
本文比较发达与新兴经济体中货币和财政政策冲击对GDP的影响，发现财政刺激在发达经济体效果更强，而货币政策影响更均匀。通过反事实分析量化政策对危机后十年增长的贡献，指出全球增长受益于危机时的政策支持，但随后的紧缩特别是财政整顿拖累了复苏。
Abstract This paper compares the role of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in advanced and emerging economies. Using a model with a hierarchical structure, we capture the variability of GDP response to policy shocks both between and within the groups of advanced and emerging countries. Our results show that the effects of fiscal stimulus are higher in advanced economies compared to emerging markets, while monetary policy is found to have more homogeneous effects on GDP. We quantify the policy contribution on GDP growth in the decade that followed the global financial crisis by means of a structural counterfactual analysis based on conditional forecasts. We find that global GDP growth benefited from substantial policy support during the global financial crisis but policy tightening thereafter, particularly fiscal consolidation, acted as a significant drag on the subsequent global recovery. In addition, we show that the role of policy has differed across countries. Specifically, in advanced economies, highly accommodative monetary policy has been counteracted by strong fiscal consolidation. By contrast, in emerging economies, monetary policy has been less accommodative since the global recession.