THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE‐OFF OF COVID‐19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES
研究发现，低收入国家因封锁导致的经济衰退会增加儿童死亡率，部分抵消封锁减少的死亡；最优封锁时长和力度在穷国应更短更轻。
Abstract In lower‐income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID‐19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible‐infected‐recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country‐group‐specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low‐income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.